- BCI Forecaster Report: Australia (June 2023 – August 2023)
BCI Forecaster Report: Australia (June 2023 – August 2023)
Information utilised in this report is current as of 1 June 2023.
BCI Forecaster ialah penunjuk bulanan utama bagi nilai kontrak pembinaan yang melanda pasaran dalam tempoh tiga bulan akan datang. Nilai permulaan pembinaan dibentangkan di seluruh Australia, dipecahkan mengikut pembinaan sivil dan bangunan serta oleh lima negeri utama dan enam sektor/kategori projek bangunan utama.
Ramalan jangka pendek digambarkan dengan membezakan tinjauan segera tiga bulan berbanding tiga bulan sebelumnya. Aliran jangka panjang ditunjukkan dengan membezakan nilai permulaan pembinaan dua belas bulan, berakhir tiga bulan, berbanding tempoh 12 bulan yang sepadan setahun sebelumnya.
BCI Forecaster ialah alat perancangan jangka pendek yang sangat diperlukan, membenarkan pembuat keputusan untuk menetapkan matlamat dan parameter yang realistik untuk pasukan jualan dan operasi mereka.
Data is based on projects reported on a daily basis by BCI Central’s real-time project leads database, LeadManager.
As the tight labour market and high living costs contribute to the decision to increase wages, some analysts are bracing for even higher interest rate hikes to combat inflation. This remains to be seen until the June 2023 Reserve Bank Board Meeting regarding the monetary policy decision that will be implemented next. Meanwhile, the slowdown in consumer spending is being caused by a number of factors including higher interest rates and cost of living. With these persisting economic uncertainties, the RBA’s main priority remains to be the on-target management of the inflation rate. As the RBA tries to stir inflation into the 2-3% target range, the outlook for the economy is for a continuous growth that is below-trend. Given this, a gradual increase in the unemployment rate in the future is also predicted. In the construction market, construction starts remain stable at a short-term outlook of 9% and a maintained 1% long-term trend.
Things are looking up for the residential sector in the short term, but the enduring trend shows below average values. It remains to be seen if the sector will recover in the near term, but in the meantime, the community sector is contributing more in terms of project value.
Notable projects from the community sector include the VIC projects, Hanwha Armoured Vehicle Centre of Excellence (HACE) (PID 270748017) in Lara, and the Melbourne Arts Precinct Transformation Project (PID 29198010) in Southbank.
Health projects in various locations are also figuring significantly in this edition’s reading, with hospitals such as the St. George Hospital – Stage 3 (PID 222172017) in Kogarah, NSW, the Shoalhaven District Hospital (PID 295993017) in Nowra, NSW, and the Logan Hospital Stage 2 (PID 306479017) in Meadowbrook, QLD.
Civil construction starts continue to be largely influenced by the mega infrastructure project, Woodside/BHP Billiton JV – Scarborough to Pluto LNG Plant (PID 158751017) in Exmouth, WA.
Interestingly, contributions from the transport sector are more pronounced this quarter with the commencement of the Sydney Metro West TSE Works Package 1 (PID 256709017) and Sydney Metro West TSE Works Package 2 (PID 256717017) in NSW.
The near commencement of the Sydney Metro West Eastern Tunnelling Package (PID 256730017) and the Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport Line – Rail Stations (PID 262491017) are contributing significantly to the transport sector total as well.
To view more data for building (residential, community, education, office, industrial, retail and hospitality) and civil (infrastructure, transport, utilities) construction projects, download a copy of our Australian construction industry forecast (June 2023 – August 2023).